Caribbean Tourism Holding Steady, Expert Says

The Caribbean tourism industry is holding its own, remaining afloat and resilient amid turbulence in the marketplace, according to a top statistician.

“Tourist arrivals to the Caribbean region remained buoyant in 2011, continuing the recovery process which began in 2010,” said Sean Smith, the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s statistical specialist. “Still, there were signs that we are not yet out of the woods, the figures revealed uneven growth among the destinations and revenue continued to lag arrivals.”

Mr. Smith said, “Overall, the Caribbean welcomed an estimated 23.8 million tourists in 2011, 3.3 percent rise over 2010 when just over 23 million stay-over visitors came to our shores. With the exception of May and October, which were down marginally, the region recorded a rise on arrivals every month in 2011 over the corresponding month of the previous year. Tourist arrivals during the winter months (January to April) were up 4.4 percent over the previous winter, which had grown by 3.9 percent over 2009. The summer period ending December recorded a lower than expected increase of three percent. Among the factors contributing to this performance were low consumer and business confidence and a weak US dollar.”

The larger destinations, including Cuba, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, Mr. Smith said, continued the historical trend of leading growth in the region. This subgroup, which accounts for more than half of all arrivals to the region on an annual basis, grew by 4.2 percent. Tourism in the Dutch Caribbean performed slightly better, recording a 4.9 percent rise, with robust performances in Curacao and Aruba of 13.9 percent and 5.6 percent, respectively.

“Reflecting poor performances from the European markets, the Caribbean Community had a much slower rate of recovery, with arrivals up by just 1.2 percent. This was as a result of modest growth of 1.8 percent in the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States countries, coupled with 1 percent increase in arrivals to the other CARICOM countries.

“The larger grouping of Commonwealth Countries made up of CARICOM plus Bermuda, the British Virgin Islands and the Cayman Islands recorded a 2.2 percent rise, while Martinique, the lone French Caribbean destination reporting during the period, saw arrivals go up 3.9 percent.”

Canada continued to outpace all other source markets, with a 6.8 percent rise over 2010. However, in general, there was only a 0.6 percent increase in European visitors. The United Kingdom, Mr. Smith said, was still one of the most important markets and from the 23 markets which had reported to date this represented 58 percent of arrivals, but a decline for the third straight year, mainly down to the weak economy and Air Passenger Duty rate increases.

The region also was flat in terms of cruise passenger arrivals, with a marginal 0.3 percent increase over 2010, which Mr. Smith called “inconsequential ... in contrast to the 6.6 percent increase worldwide.”

Looking ahead to 2012, he said economies in North America and Europe were still under considerable stress.

“Higher than usual unemployment continues to prevail in the main source markets, while monetary and fiscal systems remain under intense pressure. The US is into an election year and while some may anticipate this as a reason for US travelers to stay home, there is no hard evidence to substantiate this. The Olympic Games in England this year could also be a significant distraction from North-South travel.

It is expected the continued addition to cruise stock internationally will have a positive effect on Caribbean schedules, if only residually.

“However, high oil prices and the tendency to home-port close to densely populated catchment areas in places like the Mediterranean and other large European countries, especially in summer, will be some of the factors contributing to the dampening of Caribbean cruise business overall in 2012,” Mr. Smith said.

In light of this, the analyst said arrivals to the Caribbean were not expected to exceed a 3 percent increase in 2012 and visitor expenditure was also “not expected to grow meaningfully during this year”.

“Based on preliminary schedules, cruise arrivals to the Caribbean are also not likely rise by more than two to three percent,” he said.