Mexico’s Arrival Numbers Continue to Slide

Data released by Mexico’s Ministry of Tourism (Sectur) indicated that tourist arrivals continued to fall in 2009, totaling 12.6 million in the first seven months of the year, a fall of 6.6 percent year-on-year (y-o-y). This was an improvement over H209, however, when arrivals fell by 19.2 percent y-o-y.

This is an encouraging sign, as it indicates that Mexican tourism is beginning to recover slightly from its Q209 downturn. The sharp decline in Q2 was the result of the outbreak of the H1N1 virus (swine flu) in March 2009, when the first and most high profile cases were diagnosed in Mexico City. International concerns about the threat of swine flu led many people to cancel holidays in Mexico.

Although figures appear to be improving, the tourism sector is still under pressure. It is a positive sign that border tourists (those spending only one day or night in Mexico) have even risen on an annual basis, growing by 5.7 percent y-o-y to 5.5mn. This suggests that day tourists from the US and those working across the border are returning.

However, with arrivals of tourists that stay longer remaining subdued, 2009’s tourist revenues are likely to have fallen by an even greater proportion than headline figures of tourist arrivals. Moreover, we are concerned that Sectur has slowed the rate of release of its tourist figures, indicating that the arrivals data remained weak in Q309 and into Q4. As a result, we are pessimistic about Mexico’s tourism prospects in late 2009 and into 2010.