Tourism Recovery in the Caribbean Shows Mixed Signals

Tourism Recovery in the Caribbean Shows Mixed Signals

The Caribbean is experiencing a slow uptick in arrivals, with most countries registering tourist arrivals growth in the first nine months of 2010, according to the Caribbean Tourism Report published by Research & Markets. Growth in most countries was in the 3.0-5.0 percent year-on-year (y-o-y) range, which was an improvement from growth rates in the first half of the year.

This is particularly notable as there has traditionally been a reduction in tourist arrivals in Q3 following the beginning of the hurricane season in June. Countries that experienced particularly high tourist arrival growth were Anguilla (10.7 percent), the British Virgin Islands (8.6 percent), Guyana (8.1 percent), St Lucia (15.4 percent) and St Eustatius (11.6 percent).

The countries still experiencing declines in tourist arrivals were Antigua and Barbuda (-1.4 percent), Bermuda (-1.1 percent), Curacao (-7.5 percent), Grenada (-7.9 percent), Montserrat (-8.4 percent) and St Vincent and the Grenadines (-2.1 percent).

This suggests that tourists are returning to the larger and better developed countries first, such as the Dominican Republic (+3.5 percent) and Cuba (+3.4 percent). That said, the growth trend does appear to have been established and we expect all countries to return to growth in 2011, particularly given the fillip of the high season over the Christmas and New Year period.

In October 2010, the Netherlands Antilles ceased to exist as a country, instead splitting into five new entities: Curacao, Bonaire, Saba, St Maarten and St Eustatius. Previously, the Netherlands Antilles had been a country within the kingdom of the Netherlands, with funding and tourism projects treated accordingly.

Most of the islands have recovered well from the downturn, with the exception of Curacao, which experienced a decline in arrivals of 7.5 percent y-o-y in 9M10. By contrast, arrivals to Bonaire grew by 6.8 percent, Saba by 2.5 percent, St Eustatius by an impressive 11.6 percent and St Maarten by 3.4 percent.