UNWTO Reports International Tourist Arrivals Up 7 Percent

International tourist arrivals grew by 7 percent in the first four months of 2010 according to the latest issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. This growth confirms the recovery trend beginning in the last quarter of 2009 and comes despite the challenging conditions of recent months.

While April’s results were affected by the week-long closure of European airspace, globally the pace of recovery is faster than initially expected, driven largely by emerging markets. For the full year 2010, UNWTO forecasts international tourist arrivals to grow by 3 percent to 4 percent.

The 3 percent increase registered in April marks the seventh month of growth in international tourist arrivals after 14 consecutive months of negative results. Nevertheless, growth slowed down slightly in April as a consequence of the closure of European airspace for a week due to the ash-cloud following the eruption of a volcano in Iceland. Although only around 30 countries have reported May data, the vast majority is positive, clearly pointing to a continuation of the current pace of growth.

At the same time, growth varied between world regions in the first four months of this year. The Middle East is up 33 percent, although compared to the very depressed same months of 2009. Asia and the Pacific (up 12 percent) also show strong growth for the period, continuing the rebound that began in the second half of 2009. Africa (up 7 percent) is at the global trend and the Americas (up 6 percent) just below, while Europe (down 0.3 percent) reported the poorest result. Northern Europe, the only subregion in the world still far from recovery, also was affected by the closure of European airspace last April.

The overall positive trend during the first four months of 2010 is reflected in the rise of the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index. 50 percent of the experts participating in the UNWTO Panel of Tourism evaluate the period January to April as “better” or “much better.” This compares to 34 percent for the period September to December 2009 and is the best rating since January to April 2008, before the onset of the global economic crisis.

Other industry indicators such as air transport, which grew 6 percent in the first four months of 2010 according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), confirm the resilience of the tourism sector and the fact that recovery is underway. Data from the accommodations sector also reflects improved performance, with occupancy and average room rates on the rise again.

International tourist arrivals from January to April 2010 totaled more than 258 million. This clear improvement has to be compared with the negative results of 2009, the worst period of the crisis, totaling 242 million arrivals. The current volume is still 2 percent short of the record year 2008, with 264 million arrivals in the same four months.

The results this year will continue to benefit from the gradually improving economic situation, as well as from a number of high profile events including the Winter Olympics in Vancouver, the FIFA Football World Cup in South Africa, the World Exposition in Shanghai and the Commonwealth Games in India. Unfortunately, tourism has also suffered the effects of a series of natural disasters, including earthquakes in Haiti, Chile, Southern California and Guatemala and severe flooding in a number of destinations including Machu Picchu (Peru) and parts of Europe.

The UNWTO maintains its January forecast for international tourist arrivals in 2010 at up 3 percent to 4 percent. Current growth rates suggest that end-year results are likely to be closer to up 4 percent, and may even exceed it. Much depends on the results of the upcoming summer high season in the northern hemisphere, particularly in Europe. As the peak tourism season for the world’s leading regions in the northern hemisphere starts, short-term prospects are promising.