UNWTO Reports Record Tourist Arrivals for Jan.-Sept. 2010

The UNWTO reported that through August 2010 international tourism continues to recover from the decline of 4.2 percent suffered in 2009 because of the economic crisis. In fact, UNWTO said in the first eight months of this year, the number of international tourist arrivals exceeded the record achieved during the same period of the pre-crisis year 2008.

According to the latest issue of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, worldwide arrivals between January and August 2010 totaled 642 million, some 40 million more than during the same months of 2009 (up 7 percent) and one million more than in the same period of the record year 2008.

Based on current trends, the number of international tourist arrivals is projected to increase in the range of 5-6 percent over the full year. In 2011, growth is expected to continue at a more moderate pace, at around the long-term average of 4 percent. Emerging economies continue to lead the way, growing through August at a rate of 8 percent compared with 5 percent for advanced economies.

July and August, the traditional high-season months of the Northern Hemisphere, set new records, according to the UNWTO, attracting 112 million and 108 million international arrivals, respectively. This total of 220 million visitor arrivals represented an extra eight million arrivals over arrivals in the peak year 2008, and 12 million more compared with the crisis year 2009.

Results were strongest in March (up 9 percent), May (up 11 percent) and June (up 9 percent), in contrast to the seriously negative trends during those same months a year earlier. April showed the weakest results (up 2 percent) following the closure of European airspace due to the Icelandic volcano’s ash cloud.

Although recovery is still lagging in parts of Europe and the Americas, many destinations are already showing real growth and setting new records, according to UNWTO. The Asia Pacific region once again showed resilience and a strong capacity for recovery. The region was hit quite early by the economic crisis, but was also the first to show signs of recovery, posting a 14 percent growth in international arrivals through August 2010. Compared with the pre-crisis year of 2008, the region has already gained an extra 10 million international tourist arrivals. Most destinations have registered double-digit growth rates, many even above 20 percent.

Growth also was strong in the Middle East (up 16 percent), although this was on a very depressed first eight months in 2009. Africa (up 9 percent), the only region to show growth in 2009, maintained the momentum, further helped by the publicity created by the FIFA World Football Cup hosted by South Africa.

In the Americas (up 8 percent), growth has been strong in North and Central America (up 9 percent each). South America (up 7 percent) is on a par with the worldwide average, while the Caribbean (up 3 percent) is showing a lower rate of growth.

Europe (up 3 percent) is recovering at a slower pace, due to the uneven economic recovery and the impact of the volcanic ash cloud in April. That said, most destinations reported positive figures for the May to August, in particular in Western Europe (up 4 percent), Central and Eastern Europe (up 4 percent) and Southern and Mediterranean Europe (up 2 percent). Northern Europe (down 3 percent) is the only sub-region in the world still registering negative results, pulling the average of the region down.

The UNWTO said that as on previous occasions, such as after the 9/11 attacks in 2001 and the 2003 SARS outbreak, tourism has again confirmed a strong capacity for recovery. Following a decline of 4 percent in international tourist arrivals in 2009, the sector is showing real growth and is expected to beat previous records by the end of 2010.

At the same time, the UNWTO said risk factors that could negatively impact the pace of recovery remain in many advanced economies, notably budget constraints to balance public deficits in main source markets and the central issue of unemployment. Just recently, the International Labor Organization (ILO) warned that the job crisis is set to continue through 2015. The latest figures presented by UNWTO highlight tourism as one of the most promising sectors to contribute to the unemployment challenge, considering that job creation in tourism tends to outgrow that of other sectors.

The positive trend during 2010 is reflected in the steady rise of the UNWTO Tourism Confidence Index. A clear majority of the members of the UNWTO Panel of Experts evaluated the past eight months of 2010 as “better” or “much better.” The rating of prospects for the period September-December has also further improved, and is up for the fifth consecutive period from the deep trough a year ago.

So far the rebound in arrival numbers has turned out to be stronger than initially anticipated. The 50 countries that already have reported September data, together with the air transport data, clearly point to another sound month. For the last quarter of the year the pace of growth is expected to slow down, as it compares with an already positive last quarter of 2009.

Based on the current trend, international tourist arrivals are projected to increase in the range of 5-6 percent for the full year of 2010, thus exceeding 2009’s total by up to 50 million, and even improving on the record, pre-crisis 2008 count by up to 10 million. First estimates for 2011 point to an increase in international tourist arrivals worldwide in the range of 4 percent to 5 percent.
Meanwhile, international tourism receipts continue to lag somewhat behind arrivals in many destinations, as is generally the trend in recovery periods. The same trend is observed in tourism expenditure from the major source markets. Among the top 10 markets, in terms of expenditure abroad, positive but modest increases came from traditional source markets, particularly from Germany (up 1.5 percent), the United States (up 2.5 percent), France (up 2 percent), Italy (up 3 percent) and Japan (up 8 percent). As in recent years, UNWTO said emerging economies are driving the market’s growth and showing strong increases in tourism expenditure abroad, most notably China (up 22 percent), the Russia Federation (up 26 percent) and Brazil (up 54 percent).