U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator Down 1.1 Percent

The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator decreased 1.1 percent during September after a slight drop of 0.5 percent during August, reports economic research firm e-forecasting.com in conjunction with STR. The U.S. Hotel Industry Leading Indicator, or HIL, is a monthly leading indicator for the U.S. hotel industry that, on average, leads the industry’s business activity four to five months in advance.

The latest monthly change brought the index to a reading of 113.3. The index was set to equal 100 in 2000. HIL’s six-month growth rate, a signal of turning points, went up by an annual rate of 1.8 percent in September, after going up 5 percent in August. This compares to a long-term annual growth rate of 3.5 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity.

Four of the nine components that make up Hotel Industry’s Leading Indicator had a positive contribution in September -- Labor Market Tightness, Interest Rate Spread, New Orders for Manufactured Goods, and Oil Prices. Five of the nine components had a negative or zero contribution to Hotel Industry’s Leading Indicator in September -- Weekly Hours in Hotels, Hotel Profitability, International Visitors Future Demand, Housing Activity, and National Vacation Barometer.