Positive Outlook for Winter Tourism Season in Barbados

This week will see the start to the island’s 2014/2015 Winter Tourism Season, and the prospects that a better showing will provide a fillip for more growth in the economy. In particular, it will be a test for the proposed turnaround of tourism, as highlighted by key industry players.

The season usually lasts between December 15 and April 15.

The recent outlook coming from the private sector arm of the industry indicates that the forthcoming season will be better than the previous.

That outlook coincides with one the Central Bank of Barbados had given earlier this year. Both anticipates that the United Kingdom and German markets will continue to strengthen. The Canadian and the USA markets are also expected to recover from the slump with new seating capacities from both areas.

“We are not where we were in our prime years as yet, but certainly there are positive signs out there,” said Sunil Chatrani, the President of the Barbados Hotel and Tourism Association (BHTA).

Among the other developments highlighted for next year include the fact that the new accommodation will be coming on stream towards the end of next month. It is the refurbished Sandals Property at Dover/St. Lawrence Gap.

Other positive developments anticipated next year include the removal of the Air Passenger Duty for children under the age of 12 years. This tax had caused much anxiety among tourism planners, not only in Barbados, but across the Caribbean, and its removal and the plans to abolish it in 2016 for all children under age 16, has been more that welcomed by the industry.

New investments in the industry are also expected next year.

The Minister of Tourism and International Transport, Richard Sealy, is also quite upbeat about the cruise segment of the industry, with more ships and passengers expecting to call at Barbados.

Should these things materialized, they will add greater buoyancy to the tourism industry, whose performance was very sluggish in recent times. At March 31 this year, just about the time the 2013/2014 season was coming to an ended, total long-stay visitor arrivals into Barbados were down 1.1 per cent.

Apart from growth in the UK, Germany and Other Europe markets by eight per cent, 11.2 per cent and 14.3 per cent respectively, other markets (Canada, USA, Caribbean including Trinidad and Tobago) registered declines. Cruise passenger arrivals were down 1.1 per cent.

“The cancellation of American Airlines direct flights from New York, as well as the reduction in demand in seating capacity by Air Canada at the beginning of this year,” were, according to the Bank, responsible for the fall in arrivals from those two countries. Analysts put the slump in the Caribbean to high airfares since the demise of RedJet.

By September this year, the Bank was telling us that the tourism sector had begun to turn around on the back of an eight per cent increase in arrivals from the UK. That contributed to tourism value added increasing (from the decline of 1.1 per cent) to 0.1 per cent. Visitor spending was estimated at $92.3 million. For the whole of calendar 2013, visitor spend has been about Bds$1.8 billion.

Against this background, the forthcoming season is therefore expected to build on the above and in the process contribute to growth in the economy. The main determinants of economic growth in Barbados are trade (in both goods and services), investments, growth of the capital stock and improved performance in other sectors like construction, and investments in human capital. Tourism and International Business and Financial Services have been dominant in this sphere.

The expectations for the economy in 2015 are growth of about two per cent, with the same tourism sector and a revived construction industry expected to fuel that growth.
However, if a lot of what is being projected comes to past, it would keep the wolves from the doors of the economy.

Source: The Barbados Advocate