Flight Bookings Between Canada and the US Plummet 70% Amid Tariff War

Air travel between Canada and the US is facing a sharp decline, with flight bookings down by over 70%, according to data from OAG. The drop coincides with Donald Trump’s tariff war, which has fueled economic tensions and uncertainty among travelers.

Airline capacity between the two nations has been significantly reduced through October 2025, with the steepest cuts occurring in July and August, traditionally the peak travel season. OAG reports that over 320,000 seats have been removed from transborder flights, as demand continues to plummet.

A comparison of bookings from March 2024 to March 2025 shows a decline ranging between 71% and 76% for April to September, underscoring the hesitancy of Canadian travelers to visit the US. The Canadian prime minister, Mark Carney, condemned Trump’s tariffs as a “direct attack” on Canadian workers.

The downturn has hit major airlines like Air Canada, which operates the largest network of cross-border flights. Analysts warn that air carriers may need to adjust routes and capacity if the trend continues, potentially leading to higher fares and fewer flight options.

Beyond economic concerns, rising reports of Ice arrests involving foreign visitors have added to Canadian travelers' reluctance. High-profile detentions at US border crossings have heightened fears, further discouraging travel.

While some decline in Canada-US travel was anticipated due to trade tensions, the dramatic 70% drop signals a deeper shift that could have long-term consequences for the aviation industry and cross-border relations.